By 1808Delaware
When U-Haul released its 2025 Growth Index, Ohio’s placement raised eyebrows.
The state dropped from 14th to 43rd in a single year, the largest ranking fall of any state in the country. On the surface, that sounds like a dramatic reversal. But the actual numbers behind the ranking tell a much more nuanced story, especially for Central Ohio. Because Ohio did not suddenly empty out.
In fact, the difference between inbound and outbound one-way U-Haul moves was just 0.6 percentage points. About 50.3% of moves were outbound. About 49.7% were inbound. That tiny swing, in a system where nearly every state sits inside a narrow 49% to 51% band, was enough to send Ohio tumbling down the list. It is a case where rank makes noise, but percentages tell the truth.
What the U-Haul Index Really Measures
U-Haul’s index is based on more than 2.5 million one-way rentals of trucks, trailers, and U-Boxes across the United States and Canada. It tracks where customers pick up equipment and where they drop it off. That makes it a useful lens into moving behavior and migration sentiment, but only one lens. It does not include people who hire full-service movers. It does not include those who use other rental companies. It does not include families who pack everything into a minivan and make the move themselves. And U-Haul reports percentages, not headcounts, which makes it difficult to translate rank into an actual number of people.
Even U-Haul cautions that its index does not necessarily align with official population trends.
Still, the rankings create narratives. And this year’s narrative is that Ohio is now grouped with traditional “outflow” states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California. That grouping deserves context.
The Margin That Moved Ohio 29 Places
Because so many states cluster tightly around a 50/50 split, a small shift can create a large ranking change. In 2024, Ohio sat slightly on the positive side of that line. In 2025, it sat slightly on the negative side. The actual movement was modest. The ranking movement was dramatic.
This is less a story of people fleeing Ohio than a story of how sensitive the index is to very small swings. But when you step down from the statewide view and look at Central Ohio, the picture changes again.
Columbus Is Telling a Different Story
While the state ranking slid, the Columbus region continues to grow at a pace that stands out nationally. Central Ohio grew by 1.38% in a single year. The metro population now sits near 2.23 million residents. Long-term projections show more than 3 million residents by 2050. Columbus remains the fastest-growing metro in the state, adding jobs, housing, and population even as some parts of Ohio experience slower growth or slight decline.
That matters because U-Haul’s index is statewide. It does not break out metro performance. A family leaving rural Ohio for North Carolina and a family moving from Cleveland to Dublin both count the same way in the data.
But for readers in Delaware County, Westerville, Worthington, Dublin, and the northern Columbus suburbs, the lived reality looks very different from the statewide headline. Construction cranes, new subdivisions, expanding schools, road projects, and packed commercial corridors do not suggest a region losing people. They suggest a region absorbing them.
How to Read This Locally
You can accurately say that Ohio experienced the sharpest decline of any state in U-Haul’s 2025 Growth Index. You can accurately say that Ohio slipped from a slight net-gain to a slight net-loss profile on one-way rentals. Both statements are true.
You should also say that the difference was only 0.6 percentage points. That U-Haul measures only one slice of moving behavior. And that Columbus and Central Ohio continue to post strong population and job growth that runs counter to the statewide ranking.
Because for Central Ohio, the story is not about people leaving. It is about where they are arriving. And in many cases, they are arriving right here.
Image by Luis Ordoñez from Pixabay
